Experts believe the Trump Kim meeting in Singapore tomorrow may see some commitment on denuclearizing Korean peninsula.
A HISTORIC summit between US President
Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was expected to be a
success, according to experts, as Kim was likely to offer a vague
promise on denuclearisation when they meet in Singapore tomorrow,
leaving tough negotiations over implementation for later.
“Kim’s most urgent need is to alleviate the threat of a US preventive
military strike and to get at least some of the economic sanctions
lifted,” Hawaii-based East West Centre’s senior fellow of research
programme Denney Roy told The Nation in an interview via e-mail.
North Korea’s nuclear programme and missile tests over the past few
years have brought the secretive communist regime to the brink of a
nuclear state, which has given it strong bargaining powers with
Washington.
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A summit with the US president is critical for the Pyongyang leader to make his regime secure.
“He also wants to gain international prestige, establish a normal
relationship with the US where he is treated as an equal, and make
progress towards weakening the US-South Korea security cooperation,” Roy
said.
Kim likely wants to get North Korea into a position where both Beijing
and Washington are competing with each other to gain influence in
Pyongyang by granting favours, he said.
While denuclearisation is the ultimate goal to stabilise the Korean
Peninsula, President Trump is likely to hold his cards close to his
chest.
“I think that very quickly I’ll know whether or not something good is
going to happen,” Trump told reporters in Quebec over the weekend.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has met Kim Jong-un twice, said
earlier that the reclusive North Korean leader had indicated the regime
was prepared to denuclearise. The top US diplomat refrained from talking
about the plan, saying the two leaders would discuss the issue during
their summit.
An expert on Korean affairs, Roy said the summit could be called a
success if there were any commitment on denuclearisation, with the hard
bargaining over implementation left for later negotiations.
However the key to the success of the summit also depends on the
diplomatic style and negotiating skills of the two leaders. While Trump
is unpredictable, Kim is virtually unknown. His first appearance in the
diplomatic world was only when he was on camera with his South Korean
counterpart Moon Jae-in at Panmunjom in late April.
“At that time, he managed to not look like a monster, which is not very
difficult. We don’t know how he might perform one-on-one with Trump. I
would expect he will be well-prepared and wily,” Roy said.
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