Showing posts with label Denuclearizing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denuclearizing. Show all posts

Monday, June 11, 2018

A summit of hope for peace


Experts believe the Trump Kim meeting in Singapore tomorrow may see some commitment on denuclearizing Korean peninsula.

A HISTORIC summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was expected to be a success, according to experts, as Kim was likely to offer a vague promise on denuclearisation when they meet in Singapore tomorrow, leaving tough negotiations over implementation for later.

“Kim’s most urgent need is to alleviate the threat of a US preventive military strike and to get at least some of the economic sanctions lifted,” Hawaii-based East West Centre’s senior fellow of research programme Denney Roy told The Nation in an interview via e-mail.

North Korea’s nuclear programme and missile tests over the past few years have brought the secretive communist regime to the brink of a nuclear state, which has given it strong bargaining powers with Washington.
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A summit with the US president is critical for the Pyongyang leader to make his regime secure.
“He also wants to gain international prestige, establish a normal relationship with the US where he is treated as an equal, and make progress towards weakening the US-South Korea security cooperation,” Roy said.

Kim likely wants to get North Korea into a position where both Beijing and Washington are competing with each other to gain influence in Pyongyang by granting favours, he said.
While denuclearisation is the ultimate goal to stabilise the Korean Peninsula, President Trump is likely to hold his cards close to his chest.

“I think that very quickly I’ll know whether or not something good is going to happen,” Trump told reporters in Quebec over the weekend.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has met Kim Jong-un twice, said earlier that the reclusive North Korean leader had indicated the regime was prepared to denuclearise. The top US diplomat refrained from talking about the plan, saying the two leaders would discuss the issue during their summit.

An expert on Korean affairs, Roy said the summit could be called a success if there were any commitment on denuclearisation, with the hard bargaining over implementation left for later negotiations.

However the key to the success of the summit also depends on the diplomatic style and negotiating skills of the two leaders. While Trump is unpredictable, Kim is virtually unknown. His first appearance in the diplomatic world was only when he was on camera with his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in at Panmunjom in late April.

“At that time, he managed to not look like a monster, which is not very difficult. We don’t know how he might perform one-on-one with Trump. I would expect he will be well-prepared and wily,” Roy said.
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